The next probable by-election that Malaysia may witness is most probably the Muar by-election.
That, however, would only be realised if Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman exhaust all of his avenues via the courts in the next few years.
He still has two life lines that can over turn the High Court judgment – Court of Appeal and Federal Court.
In the event, the two life lines are exhausted, a by-election would be called for.
Chances are, Muda would lose its sole parliamentary seat since it is not allied to any one of the two major coalitions in Peninsula Malaysia.
Syed Saddiq was found guilty of three offences – criminal breach of trust, asset misappropriation and and money laundering at the High Court. He was sentenced to 7 years prison, 2 strokes of cane and RM10 million fine.
He however obtained a stay of execution, pending an appeal at the Court of Appeal.
Apart from Saddiq, the party only has another lawmaker – Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz who has taken over the party’s mantle from Syed Saddiq.
There are several major hurdles for Muda.
Syed Saddiq did not have enough time to mould the current set of leaders in the party.
It is to the point that he is synonymous with Muda. It is like a higher learning institution that uses the name of a man.
The other leaders stay away from the limelight even though they are all well versed in drawing the crowd via social media, especially TikTok.
Next, coalition politics among political parties are vital in winning seats.
Muda is neither with Pakatan Harapan (PH) nor Perikatan Nasional. It currently is in a pact with Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM).
Ironically both Muda and PSM did not have good relations with PH. The reach of both parties to the masses is also limited to certain groups.
One must not forget that Syed Saddiq first won the Muar seat when he was in Bersatu in 2018. He then retained the seat as Muda president via a pact with Pakatan Harapan in 2022.
Despite a win for a second term in office, Syed Saddiq’s majority dipped from 6953 votes to 1,345 votes.
The total votes he received too dropped from 22,341 votes to 19,961 votes.
This happened even though the number of eligible voters increased by 18,082 voters.
On the other side of the coin, it would be interesting to see PH or BN contests the seat during the by-election.
In conclusion, it would be a Herculean task for Muda to defend Muar.