The theatre of strategic realism in the Israel – Iranian War

If terrorism is partly performative, a form of theatre, the tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran has all the embodiments of a sublime art form. How ?

In normal circumstances, wars are launched with total stealth to maximize the element of surprise. One of the most important dimensions of warfare, whether it is staged by the states or sub state groups.

Yet, whether it was April or October 2024, Iran’s counter attack against Israel has been anything but. First, Iran would notify the likes of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Turkey, the US, and most definitely China and Russia, that Teheran would have to hit back against Israel for the assassination campaigns that Tel Aviv had conducted against Iranian assets in Syria and Lebanon a few weeks prior.

In the Iranian attack of Israel six months ago, 110 missiles were deployed. Close to 99 percent of them were intercepted and struck down, with one missile landing in the Negev Desert, close to the Dimon nuclear test sites of Israel.

Except for an Arab girl who was killed by the shrapnel, there weren’t any serious fatalities. The world breathed a sigh of relief that the animosity between Teheran and Tel Aviv did not trigger more escalation between the two archenemies.

In Iran’s second attempt to register its vehemence against Israel for decimating most of the senior commanders of Hezbollah barely a week ago—especially Hassan Nazrallah, and by one conservative estimate, 19 more military commanders in Beirut—Iran launched 180 missiles against Israel.

Given the fact that all these exchanges can trigger serious regional, even global conflagration, literally a World War III, what the both sides had been doing have been nothing but serious.

Yet, for the second time running, almost all the missiles were intercepted. There weren’t any signs of Iran trying to coordinate the attacks with Hamas and Hezbollah to decimate some of the four water desalination plants of Israel south of Haifa.

In the Middle East, a volley of hundreds of missiles, without resulting in mass killings is as good as both sides, and their patrons can do for now.

While both consider themselves a proud and sovereign country in their own right, it goes without saying that Israel is backed by the West, while Iran continues to loom as a country that is determined to act on its own behest. To the degree Teheran would want to oblige themselves to listen to the views of any power, Teheran’s trust in Russia and China seemed to be higher.

But even this optic is not completely accurate. As mentioned above, prior to Iran launching their first attack against Israel since 1948, in April 2024, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRCG) still telegraphed their intention to the likes of Switzerland, Turkey, even members of the European Union (EU) if not Jordan and Saudi Arabia too. Why ?

While Iran considers Israel its mortal enemy, Teheran does not want to escalate the war in the Middle East in April 2024 anymore does it want to do the same on October 2 2024. Does this mean Israel and Iran have settled into a modus operandi of trying not to provoke each other ?

The straight and simple answer is No. Having invested so much of their resources into the full backing of the military struggle of Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, not counting other resistance groups in Iraq, Teheran will not yield so easily. What more Iran does want the economic sanctions against it lifted.

Here Iran is caught is a Catch 22. There seems to be a growing bi partisan consensus in the White House and the US Congress that for Iran to be seen in good light again, it must stop any further sponsorship of the sub state actors all across the Arab Peninsula.

This is not so much the demand of the West as it is the goal of some Gulf States who – rightly or wrongly – been afraid of being toppled by groups that are friendly to Iran.

Should the world expect Iran to launch more missiles at Israel ? This possibility cannot be ruled out. Israel, after all, has started a limited and special military operation in Lebanon on October 1 2024.

Ostensibly, the goal of Israel is to restore the integrity of UN Resolution 1701, as agreed by Lebanon and Israel in 2006. That Hezbollah must move back by at least 50 KM back to their own land without which Israel appears determined to clear this strip of land in order to allow 60,000 to 70,000 of the Israeli settlers to return to their homes in Northern Israel.

Since there is no telling if the war between Hezbollah and Israel can get any worse or gory, many variables remain to contaminate the relationship of this dyad further.

From the point of view of Lebanon, which was invaded by Israel in 1982 and 2006, not counting many more infiltrations by Israel in the form of espionage, Beirut is obviously crossed that Israel cannot seem to respect the sanctity of Lebanon’s borders.

But from the perspective of Israel since October 7 2023, Lebanon has become a staging ground for Hezbollah to launch their medium range missiles and rockets into the northern sector of Israel almost non-stop.

Both are determined to peddle their own narrative, often by demonstrating the rectitude of their grievances.

As the late Professor Alfred Rubin of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University once said: “In any scenario verging on a biblical Argamedon, all sides will insist that they are right. It is this adamant rejection of each other’s narrative that makes the clash all the more inevitable.”

Within the context of the US presidential election, Kamala Harris the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, assured Israel that “there would be no arms embargo against it.”

Donald Trump has promised to up the ante to secure a bigger block of Jewish votes. In the days and weeks ahead, the world must continue to coax Israel and Iran to stand down without which they risk getting into an even more serious quagmire which is neither good for the region nor the world.

This is of course easily said than done. In this sense, Russia and China, indeed all the regional organizations of the world, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), must do their part to stop the carnage.

For now, Israel and Iran must come to their senses that any war of attrition, even when launched on sheer strategic realism, cannot strengthen their economy anymore can they help them to enjoy some semblance of normalcy. Without the latter, it would be impossible for the likes of them and their civilians to get on with their lives prior to October 7 2023.

Meanwhile, the staged missile showdown does demonstrate anew that Iran does not want to be dragged into a conversational warfare with Israel. The obverse is not necessarily true too.

Israel seems bent on destroying all the civilian nuclear weapons programs of Iran. Tel Aviv just wants the West to support its war aim beyond Gaza, Southern Lebanon and Yemen.