MIC, the Indian voters and Ayer Kuning by-election

It is confirmed that Ayer Kuning by-election would be a three way battle involving BN’s Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir, 49; PN’s Abd. Muhaimin Malek, 44 and the 40 year old Perak PSM chair Bawani KS.

An interesting aspect to watch in this semi urban, Malay majority mixed seat is MIC’s role and how the Indians are going to vote.

Ayer Kuning has 56 percent Malay voters, 22 percent Chinese, 14 percent Indians and 8 percent Orang Asli.

MIC in catch-22 situation

While MIC is not contesting in Ayer Kuning, it is a seat that is within the Tapah parliament constituency – the sole constituency held by MIC deputy president Datuk M Saravanan.

Despite that MIC is in a catch-22 situation.

It is expected to deliver the Indian votes to Umno and Madani government to prove its relevance.

If it fails to do so, the party would be further marginalised.

Issues with the Indian voters

As for the 14 percent of Indian voters, they have been pivot in determining the winners.

In 2018, Indian voters support dropped to 42 percent compared to the general election in 2013 that stood at 83 percent.

There have been dissatisfaction among the Indian community nationwide against the current administration.

If these are taken into account by the voters, then there would be a repeat of what happened in 2018.

The fact that both BN and PN fielded ustads is also a factor that would set a distance not only for the Indian voters but also for the 22% Chinese electors.

Lower voter turnout

Another factor that needs to be taken into account is lower turnouts during by-elections. It will also reduce the percentage and number of votes that each candidate can gain in this by-election.

It is yet to be seen whether PSM’s Bawani KS would be able to take advantage of this since the party attracts support from specific economic groups instead of racial groups.