Counting the odds to the 16th general election
LIEW CHIN TONG
So far so good for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to win his second term. Of course, many caveats apply and many things could go wrong, often at lighting speed.
Malaysian politics has entered into the last lap of this parliamentary term. Parliament is due for automatic dissolution by December 2027. Three states are due for dissolution earlier: Melaka by December 2026, Sarawak (February 2027), and Johor (April 2027).
It is widely expected that Sarawak will call a state election this year while the Prime Minister, if he wants to, can dissolve the Parliament earlier to hold concurrent elections with Melaka and Johor.
I believe that GPS and GRS, the ruling coalitions in Sarawak and Sabah, respectively, will win most of the parliamentary seats there. Hence, I would focus on the key factors that will tilt the balance in the Peninsula:
First, is there a “green wave”?
There are 165 parliamentary seats in the Peninsula. Both Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan hold 71 seats each while Barisan Nasional 23.
What happened in the 15th general election in 2022 was the collapse of support for Barisan Nasional. When the grand old party’s support fell in a three-cornered setting, Malay conservative voters swung to PN while Malay centrist voters and non-Malay voters chose PH. It was not a surge of a green wave.
The central question for GE16 is whether PH and BN, which are currently governing together as the Unity Government, can avoid contesting against each other.
For two consecutive elections in 2018 and 2022, there were three contesting coalitions vying for the same seats. It is difficult to bring the former rivals together, yet if an electoral pact materialises between PH and BN, PN will certainly be on the back foot.
Second, has PN peaked?
PN – mainly PAS dan Bersatu – has peaked during the 6-state elections (Kedah, Penang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan) in August 2023, with the idea that Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin would return as Prime Minister and PN could lead the federal government was still seen as feasible to PN supporters and a significant section of Malay voters.
Since then, Muhyiddin’s star has faded, with Bersatu being split three ways among his own diehard loyalists, deputy president Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin’s camp, and Datuk Seri Azmin Ali’s group. The split now is wide open and irreconcilable.
Third, is PAS the future?
During the year-end hostility in PN as a result of the toppling of a PAS Menteri Besar in Perlis to be replaced by Bersatu’s, PAS had forced Muhyiddin to step aside as PN chairman. However, at the time of writing of this article, PAS has yet to name Muhyiddin’s replacement.
The obvious replacement would be Terengganu Menteri Besar Dato’ Seri Ir Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, although it remains to be seen whether the conservatives in PAS would embrace him as the party’s future.
PAS is in a serious dilemma. The current form of PAS is the result of a party coup in 1982 when the entire old leadership was pushed out. The Young Turks, among them current president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang, were the leading advocates, then inspired by the Islamic revivalism happening throughout the world, including the 1979 Iranian revolution.
Their idea of global Islamism and anti-Malay nationalism, targeting arch rival UMNO, made the party more radical throughout the 1980s and 1990s. By the new millennium, PAS adjusted its stance to be a bit more moderate. It was even part of the original Pakatan Rakyat with DAP and PKR between 2008 and 2015.
However, when the conservative hardliners ousted the moderate elements in the party, PAS returned to its traditional Malay stance, but this time with a more aggressive tone and attitude, playing the race card.
Hadi has been president since 2002. While maintaining a strong grip over the party’s inner circle, he has limited appeal to the middle ground Malays, not to mention seen with doubts and even fear from among the non-Malays.
The social and global conditions have changed tremendously too. PAS’ political role model, the Muslim Brotherhood, is largely decimated, while some of its social, cultural, and religious reference points, including Saudi Arabia, are a very different place today.
We may see these debates playing out within PAS while it prepares for GE16.
Fourth, will there be a “third force”?
While third forces in the form of a popular movement or new political parties have made an impact in some countries, they generally have not done well in Malaysian politics. There were, however, instances when new parties stormed into the scene and made a permanent impact, such as the rise of DAP and Gerakan in 1969 as well as the massive gains made by PKR in 2008 (although almost a decade after it was formed in 1999).
Will the likes of political renegades such as Dato’ Seri Rafizi Ramli or Khairy Jamaluddin Abu Bakar emerge as a third force to attack PH from the urban flank and pose a serious threat to DAP and PKR in a possible “black swan” event? Honestly, I would not dismiss the possibility.
Fifth, a Gen Z electoral revolt?
Most of the PH seats the coalition currently hold were gains made in the political tsunami of 2008, as well as those won in 2013. Some of these seats provide the feel of fortresses, until they are not.
One factor that would cause damage to PH and therefore change the entire electoral calculus (as PH needs its core seats for leverage to nominate Anwar as Prime Minister), is a Gen Z revolt.
A child born in 2008 will be eligible to vote in 2026 as he or she turns 18. They may or may not have a political preference yet but judging from the issues dominating Gen Z revolts elsewhere – jobs, wages, and social upward mobility (or the lack of), as well as New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s meteoric rise, no one should underestimate the impact of the young voters.
In conclusion, as the Prime Minister has the advantage of choosing when to dissolve the Parliament, with a likely PH-BN electoral pact as well as with governing power to shape narratives and policies to pacify the urban flank such as Gen Z, coupled with the breakdown of PN and the reckoning of PAS brand of politics, GE16 is in Anwar’s favour. At least, on paper.
LIEW CHIN TONG is Deputy Finance Minister and DAP strategy director.
This article was first published in The Edge.